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OIL TRADING BAND

  • Daryl Guppy
  • 28 September 2017

Despite world tensions the NYMEX oil chart has barely moved in recent weeks or months. Oil offers rally and retreat trading opportunities but there is no clear evidence of a strong developing trend. There are good rally trades between $44 and $54 but these are followed by periods of sideways consolidation where nothing happens.

The single most important feature that stands out on the chart is the strong support level near $44. This is not an exact level, but this area has been tested consistently from 2015 until the most retreat retest in July. It’s a central long-term support level and the oil price has oscillated around this level. Starting 2016 April, the oil price has stayed above this support level and moved in a prolonged sideways pattern.

The upper edge of the sideways pattern is near $54. This is not a well defriend level, but between 2016 December and 2017 February it acted as a strong resistance level.  It has not been retested since February but there is a high probability it will again act as a resistance level. Support near $44 and resistance near $54 makes the trading band around $10 wide. This is an interesting coincidence because oil has often trading in trading band around $10 wide. However, in the past these were at levels $48, $58, $68, $78 etc. The oil market appears to have re-set these levels but with one important difference.  The $44 has become a central reference point with the oil price dipping as low as $34 and as high as $54. The trading band breakout above $44 has resistance near $54.

There is a high probability that the upside projection target for the trading band is near $64. This has been a very weak   level in the past so traders take a cautious approach to this target level because there is strong historical resistance near $60.

However, it is too early to define a new uptrend so investors watch for evidence of consolidation around the long-term resistance level near $54.

We   use the ANTSYSStrade method to extract good returns from these oscillation   rally and retreat movements. This is a long-term trading band and in a sideways movement we do not apply Guppy Multiple Moving Average indicator analysis because this is most suitable for well-defined trend breakouts with strong trend behavior.

The oil price activity is not good for traders, but it suggests continued stability in world oil markets.  Investors pay particular attention when the price moves towards resistance near $54 because a breakout rally could be very powerful and fast moving.


About the Author
Daryl Guppy (Australia)
Known as the “CNBC Chartman”, Technical Analysis Expert, International Investment Master, Daryl is an active private position trader trading equities and associated derivatives markets.

Daryl Guppy is Founder and Director of Guppytraders.com Pty Ltd. He is an active private position trader trading equities and associated derivatives markets. His most recent book is ‘The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders’. He is the author of several books including ‘Share Trading’, ‘Trading Tactics’, ‘Bear Trading’, ‘Chart Trading’, ‘Trading Asian Shares’, ‘Market Trading Tactics’, ‘Better Trading’, ‘Better Stock Trading’, ‘Snapshot Trading’. Several of these books are also available in Chinese & Italian, in particular, ‘Trend Trading’ has become a best seller and is available in Chinese.

Daryl developed the Guppy Multiple Moving Average indicator which is included in DZHI Advisor, Metastock, OmniTrader and other charting programs. He delivers accredited courses for the Singapore Exchange and Society of Remisiers, Singapore. He is an appointed foundation member of the Australian Government Shareholders and Investors Advisory Council. He is a regular technical analyst commentator and guest host on CNBC Asia Squawk Box.

As a technical trader, he relies mainly on chart and live market information to make trading decisions. He is the publisher of a weekly Internet newsletter Tutorials in Applied Technical Analysis, which explains technical analysis techniques and shows how they are applied to current markets. There are Australian, Asia, China and India editions of the newsletter, with each concentrating on local market solutions and trading education.

He is a regular contributor to the Sydney Futures Exchange magazine - Your Trading Edge, the US trading magazines - Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, Active Trader, Working Money, Bridge Trader, Australia's Shares and Personal Investment magazines, Singapore's Smart Investor magazine and The Edge business weekly and Personal Money in Malaysia. He has a regular column in China's Weekly on Stocks magazine and in Shanghai Securities News. He also contributes to Poland's Professional Investor and provided sector analysis on the Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Philippines markets for i-invest handbooks.

He edited and contributed new material to the Australian editions of the US classics in the International Investors Bookshelf series, The Basics of Speculating and Day Trader's Advantage and Options: Trading Strategies That Work and Trading Rules and Mastering Technical Analysis. He prepared the introduction to the Australian editions of Breaking the Black Box (M Pring), A Technician's Guide to Day Trading (M Pring) and New Thinking in Technical Analysis (R Bensignor).

He provides web content to Sanford online brokerage, Reuters, On Line Trading systems, the Society of Remisiers, Singapore, Asiastockwatch, Telstra Big Pond Money and Quicken, Singapore. He provides charting chat room support and is co-host for the stockmeetingplace traders forum.

He trades from Darwin in the Northern Territory, of Australia, some 3,000kms from the nearest Exchange. As a result he makes full use of electronic advantages to actively trade the market and to keep in contact with other Australian and overseas traders.

He gives conference briefings for brokerage private clients. He is a featured speaker at the Australian Traders Expo, for the Sydney Futures Exchange Conference days around Australia and New Zealand, and at the Australian Technical Analysts Association annual national conferences. He was one of the speakers in the first Australian Equis Metastock seminar series. He also spoke at the On Line Trading Summit in San Diego which was webcast to traders throughout the world, and at the Technical Analysis Trading Forum in Orlando. He has spoken at trading conferences in Italy and France. He has also spoken frequently at all the major Australian Stock Exchanges, and for brokerage firms.

He was one of two foreigners (Jim Rogers and Daryl Guppy) to participate in the 2005 Chinese market outlook conference in Beijing which was broadcast throughout China. He is a keynote speaker at the 2007 China Capital Markets Investment Forum. His analysis has been presented at the 2005 Palm Oil Outlook conference sponsored by Bursa Malaysia and the BYSD Annual conference in Turkey. He is a regular speaker at the annual ASEAN Rubber Conference and at financial trading seminars in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen.

He presents Certified Professional Training modules for charting and advanced technical analysis for the Singapore Stock Exchange and the Society of Remisiers, Singapore and the Hong Kong Securities Institute. He has worked with the Singapore and Australian Stock Exchanges to promote their cross trading link. He worked with Reuters Hong Kong to deliver trading and training workshops. He was the lecturer for the Casuarina Senior College charting course.

He also runs public trading workshops, and equity and futures brokerage sponsored seminars for clients such as National On Line trading, CMC Markets, Beijing SEEC in Australia, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, Shanghai, Dalian and Paris. He provides in-house training support for fund managers, brokerage dealers and remisiers.

He presented several on-line workshop conferences for Pristine.com and Compuserve Investors Forum. He has appears regularly on CNBC Asia, Squawk Box as guest host technical analyst, Asian Wall Street Journal, Trading Day, Channel News Asia and ABC radio and television.

He was retained as a consultant by several Australian and Singaporean brokerages and financial portals to advise on the development of Internet based brokerage, trading and information services. He is a member of the Australian Technical Analysts Association, the Technical Analysts Society of Singapore and the International Federation of Technical Analysts.


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