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Saudi Aramco Prepares for IPO Listing

  • DAR Wong
  • 16 September 2019

CURRENCY MARKET OBSERVATIONS – 16 September 2019

 

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton leaves the trump administration on Tuesday. Both Trump and Bolton could not see on same level in state affairs. Crude prices fell after the news was released as Bolton has been well known to be opposing to Iran.

President Trump says the U.S. Government will delay the new tariffs on USD250 billion Chinese goods till mid-October due to China celebrating its 70th anniversary on National Day. China has prepared to make order for soy beans and agricultural products in exchange for the good favour. Trump comments that he might consider an interim trade deal with China. 

The European Central Bank announces new stimulus of injecting EUR20 billion monthly on massive buying bonds in order to support the ailing economy. Deposit rate is cut by 10 BP to minus 0.5 percent on savings account. Market analysts reckon this could be a long run stimulus from the ECB policy.

U.K. Parliament has been suspended and will be closed for 5 weeks before opening in mid-October. Prime Minister Jonson has vowed to lead U.K. for a BREXIT regardless the situation. Pound raises to 7-week high while reacting to a new hope of possible breakthrough in BREXIT deal. Johnson is due to meet European Union Commission on 16 September and the EU leaders on 17 and 18 October.

Saudi Aramco has announced its listing for IPO in home Exchange in near future then follow by a second listing sometime next year in U.K. or U.S. markets. Iraq has agreed to cut production in-line with OPEC proposal.

OPEC leader Saudi Arabia reiterates that deeper cut on global oil production will be start in December. The target is to reduce 1.7 million barrels per day from current 1.2 million reduction now.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY regained in recovery last week. The market is still in mild uptrend while it may move into sideways consolidation this week. Technically, we foresee the movements will be ranged from 107.00 – 109.00 region with interest prone to pick bottom. Risk control is advised in case of breaking beneath this support.

EUR/USD has traded higher after the announcement of stimulus. This week, the trend is likely to move in firm sentiment with support rising at 1.1020 area. Overall range is expected to be contained from 1.1020 – 1.1170 while trading in narrow prices. Real impact of stimulus is not known yet until we move into Q4 seasons.

GBP/USD closed slightly above 1.2500 after a sudden surge on Friday. This week, we forecast the trend might climb further but resistance will emerge in 1.2600 – 1.2650 region. Downside is supported at 1.2400 level in case of drawdown. Market interest will lean to picking bottom over the short-term period till the British Parliament re-opens in mid- October.

Gold prices lingered around USD1500 /oz throughout last week and caught many traders in the jittery prices. This week, we predict the trend will be prone to fall further. Resistance is expected to emerge at USD1500 – USD1510 /oz in case of recovery. Falling beneath USD1475 /oz will expose the potential to slide further to USD1450 /oz level.

WTI Crude prices fell off USD58.00 /barrel last week after the resignation of U.S. National Security Advisor Bolton. This week, we expect the support will be tested at USD53.50 /barrel before rebound. Overall range is likely to be contained from USD53.50 – USD57.50 /barrel with some bargain-hunting emerging from aforementioned bottom.

Silver prices have begun dropping on Friday. Technically, the trend is well resisted at USD18.00 /oz for the time being and prone to head down further in coming week. Support is identified at USD16.80 /oz in case of further drawdown. However, we expect the market will lay a strong foundation at this bottom in September before the next uptrend resumes in October.

Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives traded in slight fall last week. Market will have its active month rollover to December on Monday and probably will help to adjust in contago premium. December19 Futures contract closed at RM2223 /MT on Friday. This week, the trend will be supported at RM2200 /MT and likely to recover to RM2280 /MT region if open-interest increases.

 

DAR Wong has 30 years of trading and hedging experiences in global financial markets. The opinion is solely at his own.  He can be reached at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.