Are Currencies at the Cusp of a Turn? | DZHI - DZH International 

Are Currencies at the Cusp of a Turn?

  • Kathy Lien
  • 9 July 2018

The US dollar traded lower against all of the major currencies in the first few days of the third quarter.

While it may be tempting to call this a peak, it is too early for all the bulls to retreat. The pullback in the dollar was modest with the best performing currency, the New Zealand dollar rising less than 1%. However, all of the major currencies traded higher against the greenback with EURUSD ending the week above 1.17. NZDUSD rose four out of the last five trading days and while AUDUSD also saw gains, its rally stopped at the top of its 3-week range. Most importantly, USDJPY ended the week above 110 because even though Friday’s labour market report fell short of expectations, the data is strong enough for the Federal Reserve to proceed with raising interest rates. Looking ahead, US traders should be back from their holidays and the increased liquidity will expand trading ranges. We expect additional dollar weakness at the start of the week followed by a possible recovery Friday when the Fed releases its monetary policy report. 

5 Day Return vs USD July 2 - July 6




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About the Author
Kathy Lien
Kathy Lien is Managing Director and Founding Partner of BKForex. Having graduated New York University’s Stern School of Business at the age of 18, Ms. Kathy Lien has more than 13 years of experience in the financial markets with a specific focus on currencies

Ms. Kathy Lien is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management and Co-Founder of Her career started at JPMorgan Chase where she worked on the interbank FX trading desk making markets in foreign exchange and later in the cross markets proprietary trading group where she traded FX spot, options, interest rate derivatives, bonds, equities, and futures.

In 2003, Kathy joined FXCM and started, a leading online foreign exchange research portal. As Chief Strategist, she managed a team of analysts dedicated to providing research and commentary on the foreign exchange market.

In 2008, Kathy joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as Director of Currency Research where she provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team. As an expert on G20 currencies, Kathy is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg, Marketwatch, Associated Press, AAP, UK Telegraph, Sydney Morning Herald and other leading news publications.

She also appears regularly on CNBC’s US, Asia and Europe and on Sky Business. Kathy is an internationally published author of the bestselling book Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market as well as The Little Book of Currency Trading and Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game all published through Wiley. Kathy’s extensive experience in developing trading strategies using cross markets analysis and her edge in predicting economic surprises serve key components of BK’s analytic techniques.