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Behind the Dollar's Slow Response to Yield Run-up

  • Kathy Lien
  • 10 January 2018

Daily FX Market Roundup 01.09.18

By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management

 

One of the biggest stories in the financial markets today was the surge in Treasury yields. Ten-year rates broke above 2.5%, rising to the highest level in 9 months.Normally, a move as significant as this one would coincide with a strong dollar rally but the fluctuations in the greenback today were modest with most of the gains incurred during early European hours.  USD/JPY ticked slightly higher while EUR/USD ended the NY trading session pretty much where it started.   Many forex traders are frustrated by the divergence between yields and currencies but this decoupling was a common occurrence last year.  It's a sign that investors have priced in Fed tightening and are selling bonds for stocks, which explains why bond prices fell while equities hit record highs.

It is also important to realize that today's moves in currencies were driven in large part by the Bank of Japan's policy actions.The BoJ surprised the market last night by reducing its bond buying program for the first time since 2016. Although the decrease was modest, it broadens the number of global policymakers stepping away from the markets.  The Japanese Yen soared against all of the major currencies on the back of the news and its decline pulled not only USD/JPY lower but also other major currencies such as EUR and GBP.  With many bond experts calling this the beginning of a bear market, yields are poised to move higher and if they are right, at some point the dollar will catch up and rally more substantially.  Until then, anyone looking to buy dollars, should keep their eyes focused on overextended currencies that may be due for a correction such as EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. With no major U.S. economic reports on the calendar tomorrow, traders should take their cue from risk appetite and yields. USD/JPY still has significant support between 111.75 and 112 and we expect these levels to hold.  

Meanwhile investors continued to unwind their long euro positions despite better than expected German data.Industrial production, the current account and trade balance rose more than expected but instead of rebounding, EUR/USD extended its losses for the third consecutive trading day. German industrial production rose 3.4% against a 1.8% forecast. The trade surplus increased to 23.7B from 18.9B and the current account surplus rose to 25.4B from 18.1B on the back of stronger exports and imports. While EUR/USD found support right above 1.19, we continue to look for a move below this level down towards the 1.1830 to 1.1850 region. It is also worth nothing that the Swiss Franc was the day's worst performer.  Having consolidated below 98 cents since the beginning of the year, the slide in the Swissie drove USD/CHF sharply higher. This move was fueled in part by a larger than expected increase in unemployment and a continued decline in retail sales.

GBP/USD on the other hand remains confined within a 1.35 to 1.36 trading range.  Sterling traders shrugged off a better than expected BRC retail sales report but could finally react to tomorrow's industrial production and trade balance numbers.  GBP/USD is itching for a near term correction and with the slide in the PMI manufacturing index pointing to a softer result, if these releases surprise to the downside, we could see a deeper correction towards 1.3450.

For once, we have consistency in the performance of the commodity currencies.The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars all traded lower today. The rising dollar caused USD/CAD to rebound despite the nearly 2% rise in oil prices, increase in Canadian yields and stronger than expected housing starts. The Australian dollar also shrugged off higher building approvals.  Aside from being driven lower by the stronger U.S. dollar, the lack of gains in gold, iron ore and copper prices held AUD back.  No economic reports released from New Zealand and nothing material is expected from the 3 commodity producing countries on Wednesday outside of the weekly oil inventory report.

 

 

For more information, they can be reached at http://www.bkforex.com/.

 

The information, including Commentary and Trade Ideas, provided on BKAssetManagement.com should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research which should be performed before making your investment decisions. BKForex Advisors LLC and BKAssetManagement.com are merely providing this information for your general information. The information and opinions presented do not take into account any particular individual's investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision and should tailor the trade size and leverage of their trading to their personal risk appetite.

BKForex Advisors LLC will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained on BKForex Advisors LLC. BKForex Advisors LLC do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

 

About the Author
Kathy Lien
Kathy Lien is Managing Director and Founding Partner of BKForex. Having graduated New York University’s Stern School of Business at the age of 18, Ms. Kathy Lien has more than 13 years of experience in the financial markets with a specific focus on currencies

Ms. Kathy Lien is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management and Co-Founder of BKForex.com. Her career started at JPMorgan Chase where she worked on the interbank FX trading desk making markets in foreign exchange and later in the cross markets proprietary trading group where she traded FX spot, options, interest rate derivatives, bonds, equities, and futures.

In 2003, Kathy joined FXCM and started DailyFX.com, a leading online foreign exchange research portal. As Chief Strategist, she managed a team of analysts dedicated to providing research and commentary on the foreign exchange market.

In 2008, Kathy joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as Director of Currency Research where she provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team. As an expert on G20 currencies, Kathy is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg, Marketwatch, Associated Press, AAP, UK Telegraph, Sydney Morning Herald and other leading news publications.

She also appears regularly on CNBC’s US, Asia and Europe and on Sky Business. Kathy is an internationally published author of the bestselling book Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market as well as The Little Book of Currency Trading and Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game all published through Wiley. Kathy’s extensive experience in developing trading strategies using cross markets analysis and her edge in predicting economic surprises serve key components of BK’s analytic techniques.


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