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The U.S. Grows 3.2 percent in Q1 Seasons

  • DAR Wong
  • 29 April 2019

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. Trump administration tightens sanction on Iran’s oil exports and order all counterpart buyers to stop transaction by 1 May or face sanction. India and China are two largest buyers of Iranian oil and get caught in the situation.

President Trump vows to reciprocate the EU tariffs after Harley repots 27 percent drop in profits. Germany is worried of recession from the arising threats of U.S. increased tariffs on EU automobiles.

American order for durable goods grew at biggest gains over past 8 months by 0.4 percent. Another report on U.S. GDP grew 3.2 percent in Q1 seasons and exceled forecast.

The USD Index (USDX) surges to 98.00 level and put a lid across ASEAN currencies. On Friday, Crude prices fell 4 percent after President Trump said he orders OPEC to lower market prices. Gold prices have recovered from recent bottom made at USD1266 /oz. 

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY has been strongly resisted at 112.50 level and begin to fall. This week, we foresee the bears will continue to move lower at 110.50 region with increasing pressure. Market is prone to soften for time being since the Dollar Index has heightened at 98.00 benchmark.

EUR/USD has broken below 1.1200 level last week and loitered near to 1.1100 on Friday. This week, we expect the trend to rebound but trade narrowly from 1.1100 – 1.1250 region. Technically, there should be some room for recovery as Dollar is prone to correct.

GBP/USD bottomed out at 1.2866 last week. This week, we forecast some recovery will follow through but constricted from 1.2850 – 1.3100 region. Concurrently, we also identified the aforementioned resistance is confluent to the EMA200 line. Traders are still remaining observant to the BREXIT matter in coming weeks.

Gold prices bounced off USD1266 /oz last week. Moving forward, we foresee the trend will reach out to USD1300 /oz as our first target. In overall, yellow metal is still held back from strong rise due to the recent strong Dollar. We reckon there will be sideways consolidation within USD1265 – USD1300 /oz before breaking beyond this trend.

WTI Crude prices topped off recently from USD66.60 /barrel and fell on Friday after Trump’s remark. This week, we expect some continual weakening in oil demand while Dollar may fall too. Technically, we foresee a possibility to land at USD60 /barrel before bargain-hunting activity emerges. Overall trend is expected to be contained from USD60 – USD66 /barrel for time being until we move into May.

Silver prices bottomed out at USD14.75 /oz before moving back to USD15.00 /oz on Friday. This week, we reckon the trend will trade higher while capped beneath USD15.40 /oz level. Trade activity is subject to swing trading for a while before it may break beyond the range of USD14.75 – USD15.40 /oz region.

Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives traded lower last week after news of slower decline in U.S. output. The USD/MYR is trading in tight range from 4.12 – 4.14 region. July Futures contract closed at RM2119 /MT and still shows bearish sentiment. This week, the trend will test first support at RM2100 /MT and upon piercing beneath this level, it will land at RM2050 /MT area. Topside selling activity is strong at RM2160 /MT level.

 

 

DAR Wong has 30 years of trading and hedging experiences in global financial markets. The opinion is solely at his own.  He can be reached at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.