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U.S. Payroll Slumps Despite Jobless Rate at Lowest since 1969

  • DAR Wong
  • 8 October 2018

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. jobs opening fall despite unemployment rate at 49-year low record. Trump administration reaches a trade deal with Canada and Mexico rebranded under USMCA title. U.K. sees a slowdown on economic growth from previously exceeding most forecast benchmark, probably due to BREXIT challenge.

The U.S. ISM manufacturing index grew 59.8 in September and matched forecast. Another report on U.S. ISM services index rose 61.6 in September, beating forecast and highest since June 2007.

The U.S. unemployment claims for the week ended 29 September sank to 207,000, better than revised 215,000 in previous week. The long-awaited monthly non-farm payroll dropped to 134,000 in September and lower than forecast.

Unemployment rate at 3.7 percent and lowest since 1969, while average hourly earnings stays at 0.3 percent gains on monthly comparison. FED chair Powell signals the interest rates is still far from neutral level and hints more rate hike to come.

U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis cancels trip to China in end October as trade tension rises. The U.S. Government has reached a trade deal with Canada and Mexico, rebranding the NAFTA deal into new name as USMCA deal. The agreement is mainly focused on changing provisions in auto-making industries and dairy products.  

China’s Caixin manufacturing index rose at 50.0 benchmark and slowest since June 2017. China is celebrating the week-long vacation for national day and market has been closed.        

Japan’s Tankan report ended September on quarterly seasons grew to 19 and worst in 5 consecutive quarters. Final manufacturing index at 52.5 in September and beats forecast.  

German retail sales dropped 0.1 percent in September. Euro falls to 6-week low at 1.1500 as Dollar climbs higher.  

Markit reports U.K. manufacturing index gained 53.8 in September and beat forecast. Net lending to individuals at GBP4.0 billion versus revised GBP3.88 billion in August.  

Markit in London says the construction index rose 52.1 in September versus 52.9 in previous month. Another report on services index gained 53.9 in September and matched expectation.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY has hit 114.50 resistance last week. The market may begin to consolidate sideways with support rising at 112.60 level. We expect some whipsaw in mixed trading from 112.60 – 114.50 region as traders’ focus will shift to Euro currency.

EUR/USD falls to 6-week low and will probably continue to slide further in coming week. Technically, we foresee the market is well resisted at 1.1570 level with strong selling forces. Sinking below 1.1450 will open the bearish trend to test 1.1300 area.

GBP/USD has seen a support emerging at 1.2920 area last week. This week, the trend may move into consolidation from 1.2920 – 1.320 range as traders adjust positions in mixed trading. However, long-term outlook for Pound is not optimistic in market as BREXIT remains as an obstacle before the British Government could reach a deal with EU officials. 

 

Disclaimer: This article is written for general information only. No liability by the writer, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work.

DAR Wong is a professional in financial industry based in Singapore with 29 years of global trading experiences. The expression is solely at his own. You may reach him at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.