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Stronger U.S. Payrolls Offset Trade Worries

  • DAR Wong
  • 9 July 2018

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. manufacturing and services indexes improve in both sectors. Payrolls increase and lifts stock market. China maintains in growth track as reported by Caixin report. U.K. construction and housing reports fare strong and relieves worries of Brexit threats.

The U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose to 60.2 in June and highest in past 4 months. Another report on the services index from the same institution grew to 59.1 and best record since February. Jobless claims for the week ended 30 June expanded by 231,000 and highest in 7 weeks.    

America added 213,000 payrolls in June and above forecast. Average hourly earnings grew 0.2 percent and missed expectation. Unemployment rate climbed back to 4.0 percent after 3.8 percent in May. Dow market reacted bullish after the data release as payrolls project growth in job market. 

China’s Caixin manufacturing index grew to 51.0 in June and matched forecast. Another report on Caixin services index rose to 53.9 in June and maintained in growing track for 4 months.

Japan’s quarterly Tankan report on large manufacturer’s index expanded to 21 reading as of end June, below forecast and lower than 24 in previous quarter. Markit reports final manufacturing at 53.0 and matched June’s expectation.

Eurozone producer prices rose 0.8 percent in May and better than forecast. Another report on retail sales remained flat in similar month.

Markit reports U.K. manufacturing at 54.4 in June and matched forecast. Another report from the same institution says the construction index at 53.1 in June and highest in 7 months.

Halifax housing price index rose 0.3 percent in June and matched forecast, after the previous month revised 1.7 percent gains. Pound climbs fairly higher in firm sentiment as outlook for construction and housing are steady.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY has been consolidating last week but fails to close above 111.00 benchmark. This week, we reckon the trend is prone to fall while support might rise at 109.50 region. Range will probably be contained in the aforementioned region and continue to move sideways.

EUR/USD has ascended as we forecast last week. The market will sit tight on 1.1650 support while continue to climb higher in coming week. Technically, we shall not be surprised to see the trend reaches up to 1.1850 though the overall range might be small. Risk control is recommended in case the trend reverses beneath 1.1650 level.

GBP/USD traded in firm sentiment as we predicted last week. The market stands above 1.3100 support and likely to safeguard this benchmark in near future. This week, we foresee the market is prone to climb higher with target preset at 1.3400 area. Range bound will be contained from 1.3100 – 1.3400 range.

 

Disclaimer: This article is written for general information only. No liability by the writer, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work.

DAR Wong is a registered fund manager in Singapore with 27 years of global trading experiences. You may reach him at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.


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