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U.S. Announces Pull-Out from Iran Deal

  • DAR Wong
  • 14 May 2018

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. inflation moves in sluggish trend from consumer and producer prices. Restoration of Iran sanction may spike oil prices in coming months. Bank of England remains monetary policy unchanged amid weak economic data.

American producer prices rose 0.1 percent in April and lowest in 4 months. Excluding food and energy, core prices gained 0.2 percent and matched forecast.

The U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in April but below forecast, though above previous month at minus 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, core prices gained 0.1 percent. Unemployment claims for the week ended 5 May at 211,000 and remained at healthy low level.

The U.S. President Trump announces the pull-out from Iran deal and restore sanction. European Union counterparts express unwillingness as they are major importers of Iranian crude. Market analysts reckon the impending rise in energy prices will benefit U.S. for the increased production of shale oil. 

China’s trade surplus rose USD28.8 billion in April and above forecast. Another report on consumer prices gained 1.8 percent in April on year basis. Producer prices rose 3.4 percent from a year ago.

British Halifax home prices shed 3.1 percent in April and worst in 8 years’ record. Manufacturing production grew at minus 0.1 percent in March but better than previous month. Trade deficits widened in March at GBP12.3 billion and worse than forecast.

Bank of England holds benchmark rates unchanged at 0.5 percent and maintain asset purchase at GBP435 billion on monthly program. Weak economic data has fend off the rate hike expected in Q1 seasons.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY has been hovering from 109.00 – 110.0 range last week and prone to thread sideways within this zone. Technically, we reckon the prices are at high range and might decline this week once the bears engulf below 109.00 level. Our next target sets at 107.50 while resistance should not violate above 110.0 level.

EUR/USD bounced off 1.1821 bottom for about 100 pips before the weekend. This week, we forecast the trend may recover to 1.2100 area due to short-covering. However, support at 1.1800 may be tested but need to hold the trend in order to activate a strong recovery.

GBP/USD has been consolidating from 1.3500 – 1.3600 after declining for weeks. The market is prone to make a recovery at 1.3750 region this week. However, the trend should not pierce beneath 1.3450 support in case of triggering new panic selling. Risk control is advised on caution.

 

Disclaimer: This article is written for general information only. No liability by the writer, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work.

DAR Wong is a registered fund manager in Singapore with 29 years of global trading experiences. You may reach him at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.


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