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American Payroll Falls Short of Forecast

  • DAR Wong
  • 7 May 2018

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. personal income increase but both manufacturing and services fall. Non-farm payrolls add 164,000 but misses expectation. Trade talk between U.S. and China yield no clear results on bilateral trade ties. U.K. shows slowdown in manufacturing amid falling consumer borrowings. 

The U.S. personal income rose 0.4 percent in March and highest in 4 months, after previous month was revised at par. Weekly claims for jobless benefits for the week ended 28 April was at 211,000 and maintained at low record below forecast.

The U.S. ISM manufacturing index fell to 57.3 in April and lowest record since August last year. Another services index from the same institution expanded at 56.8 and lowest in 4 months, after gaining 58.8 in March.

The U.S. non-farm payroll added 164,000 jobs in April and higher than March but missed forecast 0f 190,000 cases. Average hourly earnings grew 0.1 percent and fell short of expectation.

China’s manufacturing index rose to 51.4 in April while services index grew at 51.8, both above 50 benchmark and in good growth. Another separate report released by Caixin services index rose 52.9 in April.

The trade talk between U.S. and China ended 2-day summit in Beijing on Friday while presented by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Vice Premier Liu He. The U.S. party has asked China to reduce trade surplus by USD200 billion before 2020.

Eurozone consumer prices rose 1.2 percent in April on year basis and below revised 1.3 percent gains in March. Excluding food and energies, core prices shrank at 0.7 percent gains from a year ago after rose 1.0 percent in March.

Markit reports that U.K. manufacturing index grew at 53.9 in April and down from previous month 54.9, also lowest record since November 2016. Another report on net lending to consumers in March at GBP4.2 billion and lowest since June 2016, showing an indirect sign of slowdown in consumers’ spending.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY topped above 110.00 briefly last week and fell again. Technically, the trend is expected to encounter strong selling forces at 109.50 region while prone to trade sideways. This week, we forecast the range will be contained from 108.00 – 109.50 region.

EUR/USD is hovering at 1.1950 after falling for more than 2 weeks. The trend might begin to bounce for recovery soon as the prices are supported at EMA200 line. This week, we reckon the range will be supported at 1.1920 and prone to recover at 1.2130 level, resulting about 200 pips range.

GBP/USD has been falling for 3 weeks and encounter the EMA200 support at 1.3600 region. This week, we predict the range will trade in tight movement from 1.3500 – 1.3700 amid mixed activity. Basically, the Dollar is acting strong and will out a lid on Pound for the time being for quick recovery.

 

 

Disclaimer: This article is written for general information only. No liability by the writer, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work.

DAR Wong is a registered fund manager in Singapore with 27 years of global trading experiences. You may reach him at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.


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